Early Review of Aluminum on January 6

On January 5, Shanghai Aluminum opened high and went low overnight, because Guizhou once again limited power and cut production; the main force closed at 17820 at 2302, and LME Aluminum closed at 2257.5 and fell 9.5; on the spot side, SMM East China Aluminum quoted 17730 on Thursday and fell 290 at a discount of 60 Down 20, Foshan Nanchu aluminum price fell 290 from 17710, inventory unexpectedly increased, aluminum price continued to fall, spot performance was still weak, Wuxi price discount was 30 to 40 discount, and Foshan price discount was raised to 10 discount after 30 discount.

On the macro front, the data released by the ISM showed that the US ISM manufacturing index fell to 48.4 in December, shrinking for the second consecutive month, and demand further weakened. The central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have established a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the interest rate policy of the first housing loan; the Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: We must strongly support the purchase of the first housing.

In terms of inventory, the inventory unexpectedly increased due to the increase in large-scale goods. On the 5th, SMM counted 576,000 tons of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption places, an increase of 83,000 tons from last Thursday; during the same period, Steel Union statistics showed that the aluminum rods in major domestic consumption places were 96,500 tons tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from last Thursday.

In terms of import and export, in November 2022, China exported 455,500 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export from January to November was 6.1319 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. From January to October 2022, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 5.6762 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.9% from January to October last year. In November, China imported 255,700 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 35.7%; from January to November, China imported 2.1327 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.2%.

In terms of production capacity, the recovery of production capacity has been hindered, and power cuts in Guizhou have been upgraded. Laibin Yinhai in Guangxi has resumed production of 250,000 tons through technological transformation, and Baiyinhua Aluminum Power in Inner Mongolia has been put into production; the second phase of Zhongrui technological transformation project in Gansu has been put into operation; Guizhou Power Grid has issued a notice on the implementation of load management for electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the province are expected to reduce production 30% is about 400,000 tons. On the 29th, the power cut was cut again by 20% to about 200,000 tons. On the 5th, the power cut was cut again by about 300,000 tons. Indonesia announced that it will ban the export of bauxite in June 2023. The proportion of imported ore in Indonesia is relatively small, and the direct impact is limited. Nanshan Aluminum plans to sell 336,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum indicators.

On the demand side, due to the impact of the epidemic, downstream demand was weak, holidays were brought forward, and the amount of ingot casting in aluminum plants increased.

Logic and strategy advice: The peak of the epidemic in the core cities has passed, entering the recovery period, and the market risk appetite has picked up; due to the epidemic, downstream demand has entered the holiday ahead of schedule, the demand is poor, the inventory has unexpectedly increased, the spot market is sluggish, and the discount continues. It is expected that in the short term Aluminum prices fluctuated weakly.

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